Turkey Supply Forecast
July 23, 2008
shaded area forecast
**SAMPLE DATA**
Young Turkey Average Liveweight at Slaughter, USDA pounds per head © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 28.21 27.56 27.22 27.09 26.60 26.76 26.29 25.59 25.95 26.72 26.01 27.38 27.66 26.82 25.94 26.70 26.78
2003 28.14 27.14 27.44 27.19 Text Box: SAMPLE
27.22
27.40 26.33 25.89 26.31 26.38 25.47 26.79 27.57 27.27 26.18 26.21 26.81
2004 27.53 27.91 27.14 27.45 27.61 27.50 26.65 26.30 26.60 27.00 26.34 27.72 27.53 27.52 26.52 27.02 27.15
2005 29.68 29.21 28.99 28.84 28.42 28.20 27.58 26.61 27.14 26.93 26.82 28.58 29.29 28.49 27.11 27.44 28.08
2006 30.28 29.72 28.58 28.33 28.68 27.82 27.82 26.97 27.77 27.41 27.16 28.10 29.53 28.28 27.52 27.56 28.22
2007 29.60 28.86 28.70 28.57 28.44 28.50 28.21 27.41 28.02 27.75 27.68 29.01 29.05 28.50 27.88 28.15 28.40
2008 30.40 29.64 29.39 29.38 29.01 28.73 28.35 27.64 28.20 27.92 27.51 28.89 29.81 29.04 28.06 28.11 28.75
% chg 06 to 07 -2.25% -2.89% 0.42% 0.85% -0.84% 2.44% 1.40% 1.63% 0.90% 1.24% 1.91% 3.24% -1.60% 0.80% 1.31% 2.14% 0.62%
% chg 07 to 08 2.70% 2.70% 2.40% 2.84% 2.00% 0.82% 0.49% 0.83% 0.64% 0.60% -0.61% -0.43% 2.60% 1.89% 0.65% -0.15% 1.26%
Old Turkey Average Liveweight at Slaughter, USDA pounds per head © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 28.39 28.00 27.94 27.69 27.68 26.30 26.05 26.92 26.52 26.93 27.05 27.67 28.11 27.22 26.50 27.22 27.26
2003 27.04 27.89 27.55 26.58 Text Box: SAMPLE
27.48
26.29 26.73 25.35 27.63 26.33 27.13 28.49 27.49 26.78 26.57 27.32 27.04
2004 28.92 26.37 26.71 26.21 27.07 26.80 25.81 26.40 26.02 27.91 27.80 27.08 27.33 26.69 26.08 27.60 26.93
2005 28.42 27.27 27.11 25.33 26.51 26.65 25.27 24.89 25.94 25.43 26.52 25.61 27.60 26.16 25.37 25.85 26.25
2006 27.27 25.96 27.19 25.49 27.01 26.12 26.12 24.63 26.36 27.03 26.27 27.11 26.81 26.21 25.70 26.80 26.38
2007 26.72 25.82 26.19 27.88 26.05 26.24 25.53 25.21 26.09 25.77 26.70 27.23 26.24 26.72 25.61 26.57 26.29
2008 25.86 26.97 26.24 27.21 27.52 26.95 25.94 25.35 26.46 26.50 26.89 27.11 26.36 27.23 25.92 26.83 26.58
% chg 06 to 07 -2.02% -0.54% -3.68% 9.38% -3.55% 0.46% -2.26% 2.35% -1.02% -4.66% 1.64% 0.44% -2.10% 1.97% -0.36% -0.88% -0.36%
% chg 07 to 08 -3.22% 4.45% 0.19% -2.40% 5.64% 2.70% 1.62% 0.54% 1.42% 2.83% 0.71% -0.44% 0.43% 1.88% 1.20% 1.00% 1.13%
Total Turkey Average Liveweight at Slaughter, USDA pounds per head © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 28.21 27.56 27.23 27.09 26.61 26.75 26.29 25.61 25.96 26.73 26.02 27.38 27.67 26.82 25.95 26.71 26.79
2003 28.12 27.15 27.44 27.19 Text Box: SAMPLE
27.22
27.39 26.34 25.88 26.33 26.38 25.49 26.80 27.57 27.27 26.18 26.22 26.81
2004 27.55 27.90 27.13 27.44 27.61 27.50 26.63 26.30 26.59 27.01 26.35 27.71 27.53 27.52 26.51 27.02 27.14
2005 29.67 29.20 28.98 28.81 28.40 28.19 27.55 26.59 27.13 26.91 26.82 28.55 29.28 28.47 27.09 27.43 28.07
2006 30.25 29.69 28.57 28.29 28.67 27.80 27.80 26.94 27.75 27.41 27.15 28.09 29.50 28.25 27.50 27.55 28.20
2007 29.57 28.84 28.69 28.56 28.42 28.48 28.19 27.38 28.00 27.74 27.67 29.00 29.03 28.49 27.86 28.14 28.38
2008 30.37 29.62 29.36 29.36 29.00 28.73 28.35 27.64 28.20 27.92 27.51 28.89 29.78 29.03 28.06 28.11 28.75
% chg 06 to 07 -2.25% -2.86% 0.42% 0.95% -0.87% 2.45% 1.40% 1.63% 0.90% 1.20% 1.92% 3.24% -1.59% 0.83% 1.31% 2.13% 0.63%
% chg 07 to 08 2.71% 2.70% 2.34% 2.80% 2.04% 0.89% 0.56% 0.94% 0.72% 0.64% -0.57% -0.39% 2.58% 1.91% 0.74% -0.11% 1.29%
Young Turkey Liveweight Produced, USDA million pounds   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 607 566 564 621 625 570 610 603 558 662 619 583 1,737 1,817 1,771 1,864 7,189
2003 601 544 589 596 Text Box: SAMPLE
609
603 614 570 584 663 571 552 1,733 1,808 1,767 1,785 7,093
2004 549 512 591 562 559 585 580 587 567 581 605 544 1,652 1,706 1,734 1,730 6,822
2005 570 513 581 559 577 613 539 610 569 602 602 549 1,665 1,749 1,718 1,752 6,883
2006 561 524 616 542 621 636 571 623 578 678 632 537 1,700 1,799 1,772 1,846 7,118
2007 609 560 607 581 638 636 632 652 574 732 656 575 1,776 1,855 1,858 1,963 7,452
2008 686 635 610 648 648 645 671 615 639 749 593 621 1,931 1,942 1,924 1,963 7,760
% chg 06 to 07 8.55% 6.96% -1.44% 7.16% 2.74% -0.05% 10.62% 4.68% -0.69% 8.06% 3.80% 7.10% 4.44% 3.08% 4.84% 6.32% 4.69%
% chg 07 to 08 12.76% 13.33% 0.56% 11.52% 1.63% 1.49% 6.10% -5.71% 11.27% 2.21% -9.60% 8.14% 8.77% 4.68% 3.55% 0.00% 4.14%
Old Turkey Liveweight Produced, USDA million pounds   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 6.5 4.4 3.9 6.5 3.0 4.5 5.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 5.7 7.6 14.8 13.9 20.4 20.8 69.9
2003 8.6 5.0 5.2 4.6 Text Box: SAMPLE
6.7
6.5 10.3 8.6 7.9 7.0 6.7 4.4 18.8 17.8 26.7 18.2 81.5
2004 6.0 2.8 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.8 7.3 7.7 9.0 6.0 4.8 7.3 14.9 16.6 24.0 18.1 73.7
2005 5.6 4.5 4.8 4.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.3 4.9 6.8 6.0 4.3 14.9 15.2 17.0 17.1 64.2
2006 5.1 3.4 5.5 6.1 3.5 6.4 7.2 7.6 5.6 6.0 6.4 5.4 14.0 16.0 20.4 17.8 68.2
2007 5.2 2.8 3.5 2.9 5.3 4.5 4.8 6.6 6.1 4.6 5.5 5.3 11.5 12.6 17.5 15.5 57.1
2008 3.1 3.3 4.6 5.8 3.8 5.6 6.3 7.1 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.6 11.0 15.2 19.9 17.2 63.3
% chg 06 to 07 1.11% -19.38% -35.63% -53.05% 51.03% -29.94% -33.76% -12.30% 9.23% -23.13% -13.78% -0.54% -18.25% -21.12% -13.96% -12.94% -16.26%
% chg 07 to 08 -41.13% 19.07% 31.33% 101.81% -27.82% 25.35% 32.71% 6.74% 5.94% 26.84% 3.63% 5.38% -4.33% 20.57% 13.53% 11.15% 10.85%
Total Turkey Liveweight Produced, USDA million pounds   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 614 571 568 628 628 575 615 611 566 669 625 590 1,752 1,831 1,791 1,885 7,259
2003 609 548 594 601 Text Box: SAMPLE
615
610 624 579 592 670 578 556 1,752 1,826 1,794 1,803 7,175
2004 555 515 597 567 564 591 587 595 576 587 609 552 1,667 1,722 1,758 1,748 6,896
2005 576 518 586 563 582 619 545 616 573 608 608 553 1,680 1,764 1,735 1,769 6,947
2006 566 527 621 548 625 642 579 630 584 684 638 542 1,714 1,815 1,793 1,864 7,186
2007 614 563 610 584 643 640 637 659 580 737 661 580 1,787 1,867 1,876 1,978 7,509
2008 689 638 615 654 652 651 678 623 646 755 599 627 1,942 1,957 1,946 1,981 7,827
% chg 06 to 07 8.48% 6.79% -1.74% 6.49% 3.01% -0.34% 10.07% 4.47% -0.59% 7.78% 3.63% 7.03% 4.26% 2.87% 4.63% 6.14% 4.49%
% chg 07 to 08 12.31% 13.36% 0.74% 11.97% 1.39% 1.71% 6.39% -5.49% 11.29% 2.41% -9.47% 8.18% 8.69% 4.81% 3.74% 0.13% 4.23%
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