Turkey Supply Forecast
July 23, 2008
shaded area forecast
**SAMPLE DATA**
Young Turkeys Slaughtered, USDA During Month thousand head   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 21,518 20,547 20,725 Text Box: SAMPLE
22,944
23,503 21,310 23,200 23,554 21,503 24,772 23,817 21,282 62,790 67,757 68,257 69,871 268,675
2003 21,342 20,024 21,462 21,915 22,357 22,022 23,297 22,019 22,184 25,122 22,413 20,596 62,828 66,294 67,500 68,131 264,753
2004 19,946 18,335 21,779 20,465 20,234 21,284 21,749 22,336 21,318 21,525 22,951 19,641 60,060 61,983 65,403 64,117 251,563
2005 19,219 17,566 20,044 19,377 20,296 21,736 19,554 22,929 20,952 22,345 22,429 19,195 56,829 61,409 63,435 63,969 245,642
2006 18,521 17,621 21,544 19,141 21,659 22,705 20,538 23,099 20,819 24,730 23,266 19,091 57,686 63,505 64,456 67,087 252,734
2007 20,564 19,408 21,145 20,340 22,438 22,307 22,410 23,792 20,492 26,389 23,700 19,806 61,117 65,085 66,694 69,895 262,791
2008 22,580 21,416 20,770 22,055 22,354 22,453 23,658 22,245 22,654 26,816 21,554 21,513 64,766 66,862 68,558 69,883 270,069
% chg 06 to 07 11.03% 10.14% -1.85% 6.26% 3.60% -1.75% 9.11% 3.00% -1.57% 6.71% 1.87% 3.75% 5.95% 2.49% 3.47% 4.19% 3.98%
% chg 07 to 08 9.80% 10.35% -1.77% 8.43% -0.37% 0.65% 5.57% -6.50% 10.55% 1.62% -9.06% 8.62% 5.97% 2.73% 2.80% -0.02% 2.77%
Old Turkeys Slaughtered, USDA During Month thousand head   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 230 158 138 233 Text Box: SAMPLE
108
170 195 289 285 278 211 274 175.33 170.33 256.33 254.33 214.08
2003 319 178 189 171 244 248 384 339 286 267 248 155 228.67 221.00 336.33 223.33 252.33
2004 207 107 229 208 196 218 284 292 346 215 174 269 181.00 207.33 307.33 219.33 228.75
2005 197 164 179 171 203 204 230 255 188 267 227 167 180.00 192.67 224.33 220.33 204.33
2006 188 132 202 240 129 238 276 307 213 222 244 198 174.00 202.33 265.33 221.33 215.75
2007 194 107 135 103 202 170 187 263 235 179 207 196 145.33 158.33 228.33 194.00 181.50
2008 118 122 177 213 138 208 244 279 246 221 213 208 139.00 186.17 256.33 213.75 198.81
% chg 06 to 07 3.19% -18.94% -33.17% -57.08% 56.59% -28.57% -32.25% -14.33% 10.33% -19.37% -15.16% -1.01% -16.48% -21.75% -13.94% -12.35% -15.87%
% chg 07 to 08 -39.18% 14.02% 31.11% 106.80% -31.68% 22.06% 30.61% 6.18% 4.47% 23.32% 2.90% 5.87% -4.36% 17.58% 12.26% 10.18% 9.54%
Total Turkeys Slaughtered, USDA During Month thousand head   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2001 968 964 990 974 1,064 1,075 1,098 1,089 1,115 1,159 1,175 993 974 1,038 1,101 1,109 1,055
2002 989 1,035 993 Text Box: SAMPLE
1,054
1,073 1,074 1,063 1,084 1,089 1,089 1,201 1,026 1,006 1,067 1,079 1,106 1,064
2003 985 1,010 1,031 1,004 1,076 1,060 1,076 1,065 1,070 1,104 1,193 943 1,009 1,047 1,070 1,080 1,051
2004 960 922 957 940 1,022 977 1,049 1,029 1,032 1,035 1,101 948 946 980 1,036 1,028 998
2005 925 887 879 931 976 997 989 1,008 1,007 1,077 1,079 922 897 968 1,001 1,026 973
2006 850 888 945 969 990 1,043 1,041 1,018 1,052 1,134 1,120 964 895 1,001 1,037 1,073 1,001
2007 903 976 967 973 1,029 1,070 1,076 1,046 1,091 1,155 1,138 1,000 949 1,024 1,071 1,098 1,035
2008 1,032 1,026 997 1,012 1,071 1,079 1,086 1,073 1,090 1,176 1,146 987 1,018 1,054 1,083 1,103 1,065
% chg 06 to 07 6.13% 9.93% 2.31% 0.46% 3.91% 2.63% 3.40% 2.77% 3.74% 1.85% 1.69% 3.70% 6.04% 2.35% 3.31% 2.35% 3.42%
% chg 07 to 08 14.32% 5.11% 3.12% 3.98% 4.08% 0.82% 0.97% 2.56% -0.04% 1.77% 0.63% -1.28% 7.35% 2.91% 1.14% 0.45% 2.82%
Slaughter Days per Month, EMI Analytics Calculation days   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 22 20 21 22 22 20 22 22 20 23 20 21 63 64 64 64 255
2003 22 20 21 22 Text Box: SAMPLE
21
21 22 21 21 23 19 22 63 64 64 64 255
2004 21 20 23 22 20 22 21 22 21 21 21 21 64 64 64 63 255
2005 21 20 23 21 21 22 20 23 21 21 21 21 64 64 64 63 255
2006 22 20 23 20 22 22 20 23 20 22 21 20 65 64 63 63 255
2007 23 20 22 21 22 21 21 23 19 23 21 20 65 64 63 64 256
2008 22 21 21 22 21 21 22 21 21 23 19 22 64 64 64 64 256
% chg 06 to 07 4.55% 0.00% -4.35% 5.00% 0.00% -4.55% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% 4.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 0.39%
% chg 07 to 08 -4.35% 5.00% -4.55% 4.76% -4.55% 0.00% 4.76% -8.70% 10.53% 0.00% -9.52% 10.00% -1.54% 0.00% 1.59% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Turkey Slaughter per Kill Day, EMI Analytics Calculation thousand head   © EMI Analytics
  JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JFM AMJ JAS OND ANN
2002 989 1,035 993 1,054 Text Box: SAMPLE
1,073
1,074 1,063 1,084 1,089 1,089 1,201 1,026 3,017 3,201 3,237 3,317 12,772
2003 985 1,010 1,031 1,004 1,076 1,060 1,076 1,065 1,070 1,104 1,193 943 3,026 3,141 3,211 3,240 12,617
2004 960 922 957 940 1,022 977 1,049 1,029 1,032 1,035 1,101 948 2,839 2,939 3,109 3,085 11,971
2005 925 887 879 931 976 997 989 1,008 1,007 1,077 1,079 922 2,690 2,904 3,004 3,078 11,676
2006 850 888 945 969 990 1,043 1,041 1,018 1,052 1,134 1,120 964 2,684 3,002 3,110 3,218 12,014
2007 903 976 967 973 1,029 1,070 1,076 1,046 1,091 1,155 1,138 1,000 2,846 3,073 3,213 3,294 12,425
2008 1,032 1,026 997 1,012 1,071 1,079 1,086 1,073 1,090 1,176 1,146 987 3,055 3,162 3,250 3,308 12,775
% chg 06 to 07 6.13% 9.93% 2.31% 0.46% 3.91% 2.63% 3.40% 2.77% 3.74% 1.85% 1.69% 3.70% 6.04% 2.35% 3.31% 2.35% 3.42%
% chg 07 to 08 14.32% 5.11% 3.12% 3.98% 4.08% 0.82% 0.97% 2.56% -0.04% 1.77% 0.63% -1.28% 7.35% 2.91% 1.14% 0.45% 2.82%