|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkey Supply
Forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
July 23, 2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
shaded area forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**SAMPLE DATA** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Young Turkeys
Slaughtered, USDA During Month |
|
|
thousand head |
|
|
© EMI Analytics |
|
JAN |
FEB |
MAR |
APR |
MAY |
JUN |
JUL |
AUG |
SEP |
OCT |
NOV |
DEC |
JFM |
AMJ |
JAS |
OND |
ANN |
2002 |
21,518 |
20,547 |
20,725 |
|
23,503 |
21,310 |
23,200 |
23,554 |
21,503 |
24,772 |
23,817 |
21,282 |
62,790 |
67,757 |
68,257 |
69,871 |
268,675 |
2003 |
21,342 |
20,024 |
21,462 |
21,915 |
22,357 |
22,022 |
23,297 |
22,019 |
22,184 |
25,122 |
22,413 |
20,596 |
62,828 |
66,294 |
67,500 |
68,131 |
264,753 |
2004 |
19,946 |
18,335 |
21,779 |
20,465 |
20,234 |
21,284 |
21,749 |
22,336 |
21,318 |
21,525 |
22,951 |
19,641 |
60,060 |
61,983 |
65,403 |
64,117 |
251,563 |
2005 |
19,219 |
17,566 |
20,044 |
19,377 |
20,296 |
21,736 |
19,554 |
22,929 |
20,952 |
22,345 |
22,429 |
19,195 |
56,829 |
61,409 |
63,435 |
63,969 |
245,642 |
2006 |
18,521 |
17,621 |
21,544 |
19,141 |
21,659 |
22,705 |
20,538 |
23,099 |
20,819 |
24,730 |
23,266 |
19,091 |
57,686 |
63,505 |
64,456 |
67,087 |
252,734 |
2007 |
20,564 |
19,408 |
21,145 |
20,340 |
22,438 |
22,307 |
22,410 |
23,792 |
20,492 |
26,389 |
23,700 |
19,806 |
61,117 |
65,085 |
66,694 |
69,895 |
262,791 |
2008 |
22,580 |
21,416 |
20,770 |
22,055 |
22,354 |
22,453 |
23,658 |
22,245 |
22,654 |
26,816 |
21,554 |
21,513 |
64,766 |
66,862 |
68,558 |
69,883 |
270,069 |
% chg 06 to 07 |
11.03% |
10.14% |
-1.85% |
6.26% |
3.60% |
-1.75% |
9.11% |
3.00% |
-1.57% |
6.71% |
1.87% |
3.75% |
5.95% |
2.49% |
3.47% |
4.19% |
3.98% |
% chg 07 to 08 |
9.80% |
10.35% |
-1.77% |
8.43% |
-0.37% |
0.65% |
5.57% |
-6.50% |
10.55% |
1.62% |
-9.06% |
8.62% |
5.97% |
2.73% |
2.80% |
-0.02% |
2.77% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Old Turkeys
Slaughtered, USDA During Month |
|
|
thousand head |
|
|
© EMI Analytics |
|
JAN |
FEB |
MAR |
APR |
MAY |
JUN |
JUL |
AUG |
SEP |
OCT |
NOV |
DEC |
JFM |
AMJ |
JAS |
OND |
ANN |
2002 |
230 |
158 |
138 |
233 |
|
170 |
195 |
289 |
285 |
278 |
211 |
274 |
175.33 |
170.33 |
256.33 |
254.33 |
214.08 |
2003 |
319 |
178 |
189 |
171 |
244 |
248 |
384 |
339 |
286 |
267 |
248 |
155 |
228.67 |
221.00 |
336.33 |
223.33 |
252.33 |
2004 |
207 |
107 |
229 |
208 |
196 |
218 |
284 |
292 |
346 |
215 |
174 |
269 |
181.00 |
207.33 |
307.33 |
219.33 |
228.75 |
2005 |
197 |
164 |
179 |
171 |
203 |
204 |
230 |
255 |
188 |
267 |
227 |
167 |
180.00 |
192.67 |
224.33 |
220.33 |
204.33 |
2006 |
188 |
132 |
202 |
240 |
129 |
238 |
276 |
307 |
213 |
222 |
244 |
198 |
174.00 |
202.33 |
265.33 |
221.33 |
215.75 |
2007 |
194 |
107 |
135 |
103 |
202 |
170 |
187 |
263 |
235 |
179 |
207 |
196 |
145.33 |
158.33 |
228.33 |
194.00 |
181.50 |
2008 |
118 |
122 |
177 |
213 |
138 |
208 |
244 |
279 |
246 |
221 |
213 |
208 |
139.00 |
186.17 |
256.33 |
213.75 |
198.81 |
% chg 06 to 07 |
3.19% |
-18.94% |
-33.17% |
-57.08% |
56.59% |
-28.57% |
-32.25% |
-14.33% |
10.33% |
-19.37% |
-15.16% |
-1.01% |
-16.48% |
-21.75% |
-13.94% |
-12.35% |
-15.87% |
% chg 07 to 08 |
-39.18% |
14.02% |
31.11% |
106.80% |
-31.68% |
22.06% |
30.61% |
6.18% |
4.47% |
23.32% |
2.90% |
5.87% |
-4.36% |
17.58% |
12.26% |
10.18% |
9.54% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Turkeys
Slaughtered, USDA During Month |
|
|
thousand head |
|
|
© EMI Analytics |
|
JAN |
FEB |
MAR |
APR |
MAY |
JUN |
JUL |
AUG |
SEP |
OCT |
NOV |
DEC |
JFM |
AMJ |
JAS |
OND |
ANN |
2001 |
968 |
964 |
990 |
974 |
1,064 |
1,075 |
1,098 |
1,089 |
1,115 |
1,159 |
1,175 |
993 |
974 |
1,038 |
1,101 |
1,109 |
1,055 |
2002 |
989 |
1,035 |
993 |
|
1,073 |
1,074 |
1,063 |
1,084 |
1,089 |
1,089 |
1,201 |
1,026 |
1,006 |
1,067 |
1,079 |
1,106 |
1,064 |
2003 |
985 |
1,010 |
1,031 |
1,004 |
1,076 |
1,060 |
1,076 |
1,065 |
1,070 |
1,104 |
1,193 |
943 |
1,009 |
1,047 |
1,070 |
1,080 |
1,051 |
2004 |
960 |
922 |
957 |
940 |
1,022 |
977 |
1,049 |
1,029 |
1,032 |
1,035 |
1,101 |
948 |
946 |
980 |
1,036 |
1,028 |
998 |
2005 |
925 |
887 |
879 |
931 |
976 |
997 |
989 |
1,008 |
1,007 |
1,077 |
1,079 |
922 |
897 |
968 |
1,001 |
1,026 |
973 |
2006 |
850 |
888 |
945 |
969 |
990 |
1,043 |
1,041 |
1,018 |
1,052 |
1,134 |
1,120 |
964 |
895 |
1,001 |
1,037 |
1,073 |
1,001 |
2007 |
903 |
976 |
967 |
973 |
1,029 |
1,070 |
1,076 |
1,046 |
1,091 |
1,155 |
1,138 |
1,000 |
949 |
1,024 |
1,071 |
1,098 |
1,035 |
2008 |
1,032 |
1,026 |
997 |
1,012 |
1,071 |
1,079 |
1,086 |
1,073 |
1,090 |
1,176 |
1,146 |
987 |
1,018 |
1,054 |
1,083 |
1,103 |
1,065 |
% chg 06 to 07 |
6.13% |
9.93% |
2.31% |
0.46% |
3.91% |
2.63% |
3.40% |
2.77% |
3.74% |
1.85% |
1.69% |
3.70% |
6.04% |
2.35% |
3.31% |
2.35% |
3.42% |
% chg 07 to 08 |
14.32% |
5.11% |
3.12% |
3.98% |
4.08% |
0.82% |
0.97% |
2.56% |
-0.04% |
1.77% |
0.63% |
-1.28% |
7.35% |
2.91% |
1.14% |
0.45% |
2.82% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Slaughter Days
per Month, EMI Analytics Calculation |
|
|
days |
|
|
© EMI Analytics |
|
JAN |
FEB |
MAR |
APR |
MAY |
JUN |
JUL |
AUG |
SEP |
OCT |
NOV |
DEC |
JFM |
AMJ |
JAS |
OND |
ANN |
2002 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
23 |
20 |
21 |
63 |
64 |
64 |
64 |
255 |
2003 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
|
21 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
23 |
19 |
22 |
63 |
64 |
64 |
64 |
255 |
2004 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
22 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
64 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
255 |
2005 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
64 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
255 |
2006 |
22 |
20 |
23 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
23 |
20 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
65 |
64 |
63 |
63 |
255 |
2007 |
23 |
20 |
22 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
23 |
19 |
23 |
21 |
20 |
65 |
64 |
63 |
64 |
256 |
2008 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
23 |
19 |
22 |
64 |
64 |
64 |
64 |
256 |
% chg 06 to 07 |
4.55% |
0.00% |
-4.35% |
5.00% |
0.00% |
-4.55% |
5.00% |
0.00% |
-5.00% |
4.55% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.59% |
0.39% |
% chg 07 to 08 |
-4.35% |
5.00% |
-4.55% |
4.76% |
-4.55% |
0.00% |
4.76% |
-8.70% |
10.53% |
0.00% |
-9.52% |
10.00% |
-1.54% |
0.00% |
1.59% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Turkey
Slaughter per Kill Day, EMI Analytics Calculation |
thousand head |
|
|
© EMI Analytics |
|
JAN |
FEB |
MAR |
APR |
MAY |
JUN |
JUL |
AUG |
SEP |
OCT |
NOV |
DEC |
JFM |
AMJ |
JAS |
OND |
ANN |
2002 |
989 |
1,035 |
993 |
1,054 |
|
1,074 |
1,063 |
1,084 |
1,089 |
1,089 |
1,201 |
1,026 |
3,017 |
3,201 |
3,237 |
3,317 |
12,772 |
2003 |
985 |
1,010 |
1,031 |
1,004 |
1,076 |
1,060 |
1,076 |
1,065 |
1,070 |
1,104 |
1,193 |
943 |
3,026 |
3,141 |
3,211 |
3,240 |
12,617 |
2004 |
960 |
922 |
957 |
940 |
1,022 |
977 |
1,049 |
1,029 |
1,032 |
1,035 |
1,101 |
948 |
2,839 |
2,939 |
3,109 |
3,085 |
11,971 |
2005 |
925 |
887 |
879 |
931 |
976 |
997 |
989 |
1,008 |
1,007 |
1,077 |
1,079 |
922 |
2,690 |
2,904 |
3,004 |
3,078 |
11,676 |
2006 |
850 |
888 |
945 |
969 |
990 |
1,043 |
1,041 |
1,018 |
1,052 |
1,134 |
1,120 |
964 |
2,684 |
3,002 |
3,110 |
3,218 |
12,014 |
2007 |
903 |
976 |
967 |
973 |
1,029 |
1,070 |
1,076 |
1,046 |
1,091 |
1,155 |
1,138 |
1,000 |
2,846 |
3,073 |
3,213 |
3,294 |
12,425 |
2008 |
1,032 |
1,026 |
997 |
1,012 |
1,071 |
1,079 |
1,086 |
1,073 |
1,090 |
1,176 |
1,146 |
987 |
3,055 |
3,162 |
3,250 |
3,308 |
12,775 |
% chg 06 to 07 |
6.13% |
9.93% |
2.31% |
0.46% |
3.91% |
2.63% |
3.40% |
2.77% |
3.74% |
1.85% |
1.69% |
3.70% |
6.04% |
2.35% |
3.31% |
2.35% |
3.42% |
% chg 07 to 08 |
14.32% |
5.11% |
3.12% |
3.98% |
4.08% |
0.82% |
0.97% |
2.56% |
-0.04% |
1.77% |
0.63% |
-1.28% |
7.35% |
2.91% |
1.14% |
0.45% |
2.82% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|